A Quarterly Econometric Model of the Indian Monetary Sector

Abstract

<p>The primary objective of this thesis is to construct and estimate a quarterly econometric model of the monetary sector of India. A significant portion of the thesis is devoted to the estimation of the quarterly time series on national income and its components - a prerequisite for any such study. The monetary economy is considered to be made up of three sectors, namely, the Commercial Banking Sector, the Private Non-bank Sector, and the Government Sector. Eight behavioral equations have been estimated for the demand and supply of six principal financial assets in the Indian money market. It was found that the seasonal variations in some of the monetary aggregates could be traced back, directly or indirectly, to seasonal variations in the agricultural income and output. The response of endogenous variables to exogenous shifts in principal policy variables has also been analysed in the present study. The price level was found to be quite sensitive to changes in the high powered money supply.</p>