Feasibility Assessment of Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Fleet Operation

Abstract

The decarbonization of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) fleets has prompted growing interests in zero-emission and alternative fuel technologies. Despite increasing deployments, the operational suitability of these technologies varies significantly across applications. Using real-world vehicle operational data and representative drive cycles, this paper models and simulates four major powertrain types; battery electric (BEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV), compressed natural gas (CNG), and diesel across vehicle classes 2b to 8, within the Autonomie simulation framework. Energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and total cost of ownership (TCO) are examined based on simulation results. BEVs consistently demonstrate lower energy use and TCO, while FCEVs achieve meaningful emission reductions but remain limited by energy costs. A feasibility assessment, incorporating charging constraints and various operational profiles, further highlights the practical challenges of BEV deployment in specific duty cycles. These results provide a quantitative basis to support technology selection and fleet transition planning under diverse operational scenarios