A METHODOLOGY TO QUANTIFY LOCAL CARBON-FREE THERMAL ENERGY SOURCES WITH HIGH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION

Abstract

Decarbonizing space heating is a critical challenge in Canada, where cold climates and reliance on fossil fuels contribute significantly to carbon emissions. Capturing and reusing heat that would otherwise be wasted (waste heat) presents a viable opportunity to reduce emissions associated with space heating. This heat recovery can occur internally within a single building or, when there is surplus, be distributed to neighbouring buildings through a thermal network. To effectively integrate waste heat into community energy systems, these heat sources must be identified and quantified. This enables decision-makers to assess both the quality and availability of the sources to determine how they can best meet local space heating demands. This study presents a methodology to quantify available waste heat sources across Ontario using a combination of a top-down and bottom-up approach. This study aims to enhance the understanding of heat recovery potential and support the development of thermal networks in the province. The methodology presented is also adaptable for application in other regions. Particular attention is given to nonconventional, low-temperature heat sources, which are often overlooked despite being valid options for thermal networks. These sources offer several benefits, including proximity to heating demand within communities, long-term availability, and the ability to diversify heating supply. The analysis reveals that the residual heat sources identified in this study could supply up to 128 TWh of heat annually in Ontario, which is equivalent to the province’s annual space heating demand currently being met by natural gas.