Inter-Urban Industrial Migration: A Simulation Model of Plant Site Selection and Its Application to Metropolitan Toronto

Abstract

<p>A simulation model is developed for predicting the distribution of plant site selections by migrant firms within an urban ares for a defined period of time. A model is based on the assumption that a particular migrant plant (k) from origin i will locate at potential destination j depending upon the attributes of j, distance between i and j, and the space requirement level of the plant as determined by its industry type and employment characteristics.</p> <p>The model is operated by using the Monte Carlo method. The parameters of the model are derived empirically. These parameters are then incorporated in a formal application of the model to Metro Toronto for the period 1966-67. A chi-square goodness fit test between the predicted and empirical distributions, as well as a continuity ratio test performed on the residuals, shows that the difference between the two distributions may have been produced by chance.</p>