THE SHORT-RUN DSTERMINATION OF CANADA'S GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE

Abstract

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to construct a very simple econometric model to explain Canada's Gross National Expenditure (G.N.E.) during the post-world war II years, 1947-1962, and to indicate how this simple model may be used as a tool in the formulation of Canada's short-run economic policy.</p> <p>In form this thesis is divided into five chapters. The first chapter gives a simple explanation or a general theory of the determination of G.N.E., while the second chapter analysis the historical behaviour of Canada's G.N.E. with a view to determining: (a) the main factors which were responsible for producing short-run changes in the level of this aggregate, and (b) whether there has been any stability in the pattern of these changes. this being done, the third chapter develops, on the basis of the background knowledge provided by Chapters I and II, an hypothesis concerning the short-run determination of Canada's G.N.E. The fourth chapter then presents the statistical estimates of the mathematical relationships derived from this hypothesis, and attempts to select that estimating equation which gives the best explanation of Canada's G.N.E. Lastly, Chapter V summarieses chapters I to IV and discusses in particular the use of the selected estimating equation as a simple forecasting tool.</p>