How Generous Are We? Forecasting and Demographic Correlates of Blood Donation

Abstract

<p><strong>BACKGROUND:</strong> Canada's population is rapidly aging. This process of demographic change is expected to increase the demand for health care services in general, and blood products in particular. Relatively little is known about the blood supply and usage trends in a Canadian context, or the Canadian donor pool, which prompts an investigation of the province of Ontario to accomplish two objectives. 1) Produce a supply and demand forecast to the year 2036. 2) Find population-level demographic correlates of blood donorship in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area.</p> <p><strong>STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS:</strong> A provincial forecast for Ontario was created using the Ministry of Finance Reference Scenario as a basis for population change through 2036. Multiple linear regression analysis of the proportion of donors per Dissemination Area within the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) will find possible neighborhood socio-demographic correlates of donation.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS:</strong> Potential shortfalls of supply related to demand are forecasted to occur as soon as 2014. The multiple linear analyses revealed that population-level socio-economic factors and immigrant status appear to be the largest drivers of blood donation rates in the Toronto CMA.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION:</strong> Important age and gender differences in blood donation and usage patterns are identified for the province of Ontario, with the forecast highlighting potential shortfalls as soon as 2012. The regression analyses highlight demographic and socioeconomic differences in blood donation patterns, allowing for better informed future research and policy development.</p> <p><strong>ABBREVIATIONS:</strong> CBS = Canadian Blood Services, HQ = Héma-Québec, WB = Whole Blood, RBC = Red Blood Cell, FT = First Time (Donor), CMA = Census Metropolitan Area, DA = Dissemination Area, CT = Census Tract, ClHl = Canadian Institute for Health Information, MTRP = McMaster Transfusion Research Program, DAD = Discharge Abstract Database, NACRS = National Ambulatory Care Reporting System</p>