Validation and Evaluation of Integrated Urban Models

Abstract

<p>The objective of this thesis is to validate the results of the Integrated Model of Urban LAnd use and Transportation for Environmental analysis (IMULATE), as well as the Integrated Model for Population Aging Consequences on Transportation (IMPACT) in the Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) of Hamilton, Ontario. The land use/demographic modules of these two models are validated using observed data from Statistics Canada, while data from the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) and the City of Hamilton are used to validate the transportation modules. Statistical, graphical and GIS visualization techniques are incorporated into this validation.</p> <p>This thesis illustrates some sub-modules in IMULATE and IMPACT can work very well, while the predictive ability of others is not as good. IMULATE considers more factors to simulate land use development. It generates accurate simulations of household dynamic using observed data as exogenous input. We used the "fmal demands" for economic sectors as the exogenous input to estimate the employment's distribution. After recalculating the "fmal demands" in its employment location model, the generated employment is also found to be close to the observed value. However, we found that its transportation module was not able to produce accurate predictions of inter-zonal trips and traffic flows over the Hamilton's road network.</p> <p>IMPACT can predict the growth of population by gender and age with good accuracy. The simulation results for males are better than females. The inter-zonal trips generated by IMPACT are found to be much closer to the observed value than the inter-zonal trips generated by IMULATE. However, we found that the simulated trips have lower dispersion across the city than normally observed.</p>