PREDICTORS OF ORAL ANTICOAGULANT-ASSOCIATED ADVERSE EVENTS IN SENIORS TRANSITIONING FROM HOSPITAL TO HOME: A RETROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Abstract

Background Our objective was to identify and validate clinical and continuity of care variables associated with Oral anticoagulant (OAC)-related adverse events within 30 days of hospital discharge amongst seniors.

Methods and Analysis This was a population-based retrospective cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older who were discharged from hospital on an OAC from September 2010 to March 2015 in Ontario, Canada. The primary outcome was a composite of the time to first hospitalization or Emergency Department visit for a hemorrhage or thromboembolic event or mortality within 30 days of hospital discharge. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the association between the composite outcome and a set of prespecified covariates. A split sample method was applied to validate the final model.

Results We included 120 721 Ontario seniors of which 5423 suffered one of the primary adverse events. Patients discharged on a direct-acting oral anticoagulant (DOAC); dispensed the same OAC in the past 12 months; who had a history of a thromboembolic event; had a recent joint replacement or major surgery; had a cardiologist, hematologist or orthopedic surgeon as compared to a family medicine physician as the physician prescribing the OAC at discharge had a lower risk for the composite outcome. Though continuity of care was a variable in the final multivariate Cox model, it was not significant. The Cox model was stable with acceptable discrimination but poor goodness-of-fit.

Conclusion In this study, we found that continuity of care as measured by outpatient follow-up in the 7 days post-discharge was not significantly associated with the composite outcome. Further exploration to improve the current model’s calibration and interpretation are required.