The Pattern and Process of Redevelopment: An Empirical Application of a Redevelopment Simulation Model to Kitchener, Ontario

Abstract

<p>This thesis is an attempt to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the pattern and process of redevelopment through modelling. Conceptually, redevelopment is viewed as a process consisting of a series of individual events related in space and time. The location of redevelopment is influenced by both the relative ability of sites to attract it, as determined by their physical and locational attributes, and chance factors. Based on this conceptual framework, a stochastic simulation model of redevelopment is developed. It is applied to the core area of Kitchener, Ontario and produces a ten-year forecast (1980-1989) of the spatio-temporal pattern of redevelopment therein.</p> <p>Analysis of the model output indicates that, as of 1980, the sites with the highest redevelopment potential are concentrated in the eastern core. If past trends continue, redevelopment in the early 1980's will occur primarily on the eastern core periphery. However, by the latter half of the decade, the location of redevelopment will have shifted to western core sites, ignoring those in between.</p> <p>The contribution of this research to the geographic literature is three-fold. Its detailed analysis of redevelopment is a significant supplement to the few existing studies of such an important urban phenomenon. The applicability of the logit model as an alternative functional form in regression analysis under certain conditions is revealed. Finally, the ability of the model to operationalize change and to incorporate a spatio-temporal shift in redevelopment location demonstrates the utility of the simulation approach in dynamic urban modelling.</p>