The Effect of Increasing Retail Gasoline Prices on Public Transit Redership

Abstract

<p> In the spring of 1983, when this project was in its most preliminary stages, a simple hypothesis was put forward. This hypothesis suggested that auto users would react to rising retail gasoline prices by switching to an alternative mode of transportation, such as public transit. It was thought that, since any increase in fuel costs could be spread out among all transit users, public transit would become an attractive alternative to the private automobile in an individual's transportation mode decision as retail gasoline prices increased. Therefore, a positive relationship was anticipated-to exist between public transit ridership and retail gasoline prices. </p> <p> Having established the hypothesis to be investigated, an extensive review of current literature associated with the hypothesis was completed. This review presented conflicting opinions concerning the hypothesis, and also suggested that other variables were more important than the price of retail gasoline in affecting an individual's transportation mode decision. </p> <p> Unfortunately, the literature review did not suggest any relevant method of analysis for this project. It was decided that, for reasons to be discussed later, linear regression would be the method of analysis. The results of the application of a number of linear regression models to data obtained for the Hamilton study area indicated that no definitive statement could be made with respect to the hypothesis of this project. This lack of significant results was attributed to extraneous variance created by certain variables that could not be controlled. </p> <p> However, as a contribution to knowledge, this project provides a basis on which future studies can be built. If the extraneous variance that is discussed in this project can be eliminated in future studies, then- it may be possible to obtain more significant results with respect to the hypothesis that public transit ridership is positively related to retail gasoline prices. </p>