Work, Health and the Economy: Examining Predictors of Early Retirement Among Older Canadian Workers

Abstract

TITLE: Work, Health and the Economy: Examining Predictors of Early Retirement Among Older Canadian Workers

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the contribution of socio-demographic, health, work, and health behaviour factors to the transition from work to early non-disability retirement among older Canadian workers during a period of economic recession compared to a period of non-recession.

METHODS: A systematic scoping review was conducted to identify the predictors of early retirement reported in the published literature. This study also used data from Statistics Canada’s National Population Health Survey to explore the predictors of early retirement among two prospective cohorts of older Canadian workers aged 45-64 that spanned a non-recessionary economic period in Canada (cohort 1: 1994-1999) and a period which included an economic recession (cohort 2: 2006-2010). The impact of various factors on early retirement was examined using logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS: Findings from the systematic scoping review were used to construct a list of variables to explore as predictors in the model. Factors which were associated with higher transitions into early retirement included older age (cohort 1: OR=1.42; cohort 2: OR=1.31), living in Quebec (cohort 1: OR=2.26), occasional (cohort 1: OR=2.56) or regular drinking (cohort 1: OR=2.32), low job satisfaction (cohort 1: OR=3.42; cohort 2: OR=3.33), working part-time (cohort 1: OR=2.16; cohort 2: OR=2.26), and employment in public administration (cohort 1: OR=2.77). While being a woman (cohort 1: OR=0.59), immigrant (cohort 1: OR=0.57), and higher job security (cohort 1: OR=0.73) were associated with lower exits to early retirement. There were differences observed in the effects of occasional and regular drinking, and for living in Quebec, on early retirement between the two contrasting economic time periods. The comparison of the provincial effect suggested that early retirement varies to some extent with the provincial unemployment rate.

CONCLUSIONS: Predictors of early retirement among older Canadian workers are multifactorial. Results suggest that factors beyond individual determinants may influence early retirement and future research is needed to better understand what aspects of the provincial context are driving retirement decisions.