Spatial Impacts of Growth Centres

Abstract

<p> The paper indicates, by a review of the early growth centre literature and the later spatial analysis literature, how little is known, particularly in quantitative terms, about the spatial impacts of growth centres. A regression model is then presented by which several aspects of the spatial impacts of growth centres in Ontario are investigated. Generally, it was found that growth was polarised around a set of designated growth centres and this growth diffused away from the growth centres quite gradually. The exceptions were for large centres, growing slowly, where growth rates increased sharply as distance to growth centres increased and for small centres , growing rapidly, where growth rates decreased rapidly with distance from growth centres. </p> <p> From the regression model, a further model was derived which was used to investigate the extent of spread effects from growth centres in Ontario. The approximate mean maximum distance of the diffusion of spread effects from growth centres was found to be 163 miles. This could have important implications for the spacing of growth centres and government policies relating to growth centres. </p> <p> The analysis also investigates the relationship between growth rates and population size and this was found to be non-linear. Generally, for small centres, population. size and growth rates were negatively related: for intermediate-sized centres the relationship was positive; and for large centres the relationship was again negative. </p>