Assessing the Impact of Alternative Responses to COVID-19: Stopping the Spread in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

Abstract

The COVID-19 global health crisis has had a significant impact on societies worldwide. To evaluate the effectiveness of transmission prevention strategies, infectivity modeling can be used to interpret and analyze various virus responses. In this study, compartmental modeling approaches are used to model and quantify the success of various control techniques, such as social behaviors. Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), a province in Canada, is a relatively isolated and easily-monitored region that can be used to study the characterization and effectiveness of infectivity model coefficients. The province has few points of entry and a lower contact frequency than densely populated urban districts. Based on the results, the implications of social distancing removed an estimated 85% of the susceptible population from potential exposure to a viral transmission. The modeling also determined a basic COVID-19 reproductive number of 3.7 in NL, higher than the globalized average of 2.3. Compartmental models are used to determine the validity of alternative pandemic responses, such as nonvaccine social practices to fight the wave of infection. The overall impact of COVID-19 in NL is concluded to have been effectively controlled by the implementation of social distancing behaviors, allowing for accurate quantification of modeling parameters.