Social Change and Political Stability in Ontario: Electoral Forces 1867-1977

Abstract

<p>In the years since Confederation, Ontario seems to have undergone profound social change, yet it seems also to have experienced relatively little political change. This apparent paradox is the starting point of this thesis. The initial terms of reference thus centre on change processes, but considerable attention is devoted to continuity and to stability in both the social and political arenas.</p> <p>Reduced to the simplest terms, the aim of this work is to determine what the relationship has been between social change and political change in Ontario over the past century. Although it is recognized that a good deal more is involved, elctions and electoral forces are chosen as gauges of the interplay of social and political change. The empirical analysis consists of detailed examination of election returns and of cencus data, employing techniques both elementary and moderately sophisticated. In addition to the specific findings, the data set generated for these purposes represent in itself a significant contribution to knowledge of Ontario politics.</p> <p>As a complement to the statistical an analysis, a wide-ranging review was conducted of Ontario history. Based on secondary sources, this review of social and political developments in the province not only provides a context for the statistical analysis, but also brings into consideration aspects of social, political and electoral continuity and change which do not lend themselves to statistical enquiry. A key element here is the province's enduring "progressive conservatism" which is examined and related to change processes.</p> <p>The findings of this study may be arrayed along four dimensions. First, no startling or grand new interpretations of Ontario politics emerge. Secondly, a host of new facts and insights on particular aspects of Ontario politics and society. Thirdly, ina a number of instances, the conventional wisdom of Ontario electoral history proves an either incomplete or inaccurate guide; this is particularly so with respect to commonly accepted interpretations of politics in the Nineteenth Century. Finally, a number of middle range hypotheses relating social and political change are tested in the context of Ontario history. The initially appearing notion of critical realignment, for example, is found to have at best limited applicability to Ontario. Some evidence is adduced in support of John Wilson's theory of political development, but important shortcomings emerge as well.</p> <p>In the end, the rather simple-minded paradox posited at the outset is largely dispelled by a more thorough understanding of the complexities of the social change-political change relationship in Ontario. The following are the key elements of this fuller view of the relationship: no significant social change has failed to effect lasting, substantial political and electoral changes. Conversely, no important, enduring political or electoral changes have come about save in response to social change. This transformation of social change into change in the electoral and political realms has been uneven and at less pronounces levels of change, uncertain-for a host of reasons: somd of the changes in Ontario society have been more apparent than real, while others have lacked political; not all political changes have been manifested electorally; the parties and their leaders perform a crucial transmission role, yet they also exert an important independent influence; the province's diversity and its constituent communities have also had a telling effect, as has its social and political converatism.</p>