Preliminary Tests of a Dynamic Model of Urban Growth

Abstract

<p> In this paper, empirical tests of a dynamic urban growth model are discussed. It is assumed that population change in any urban region is a function of the population size of the urban centres in the system and of the distances between them. A set of linear equations is simultaneously estimated by a least squares procedure. The parameters of the model; the equilibrium population of each urban region, the rate of natural increase, and the propensity to migrate between urban regions, are calculated from the regression coefficients. By estimating a series of equations at different times, a set of parameter estimates are obtained. The parameter estimates fluctuate erratically. Recommendations for further research include the redefinition of the model, and of the urban system. </p>