Using Machine Learning Techniques to Improve Operational Flash Flood Forecasting

Abstract

Compared with other types of floods, timely and accurately predicting flash floods is particularly challenging due to the small spatiotemporal scales in which the hydrologic and hydraulic processes tend to develop, and to the short lead time between the causative event and the inundation scenario. With continuous increased availability of data and computational power, the interest in applying techniques based on machine learning for hydrologic purposes in the context of operational forecasting has also been increasing. The primary goal of the research activities developed in the context of this thesis is to explore the use of emerging machine learning techniques for enhancing flash flood forecasting. The studies presented start with a review on the state-of-the-art of documented forecasting systems suitable for flash floods, followed by an assessment of the potential of using multiple concurrent precipitation estimates for early prediction of high-discharge scenarios in a flashy catchment. Then, the problem of rapidly producing realistic highresolution flood inundation maps is explored through the use of hybrid machine learning models based on Non-linear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) and SelfOrganizing Maps (SOM) structures as surrogates of a 2D hydraulic model. In this context, the use of k-fold ensemble is proposed and evaluated as an approach for estimating uncertainties related to the surrogating of a physics-based model. The results indicate that, in a small and flashy catchment, the abstract nature of data processing in machine learning models benefits from the presentation of multiple concurrent precipitation products to perform rainfall-runoff simulations when compared to the business-as-usual single-precipitation approach. Also, it was found that the hybrid NARX-SOM models, previously explored for slowly developing flood scenarios, present acceptable performances for surrogating high-resolution models in rapidly evolving inundation events for the production of both deterministic and probabilistic inundation maps in which uncertainties are adequately estimated.