Stochastic Multiperiod Optimization of an Industrial Refinery Model

Abstract

The focus of this work is an industrial refinery model developed by TotalEnergies SE. The model is a sparse, large-scale, nonconvex, mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP). The nonconvexity of the problem arises from the many bilinear, trilinear, fractional, logarithmic, exponential, and sigmoidal terms. In order to account for various sources of uncertainty in refinery planning, the industrial refinery model is extended into a two-stage stochastic program, where binary scheduling decisions must be made prior to the realization of the uncertainty, and mixed-integer recourse decisions are made afterwards. Two case studies involving uncertainty are formulated and solved in order to demonstrate the economic and logistical benefits of robust solutions over their deterministic counterparts.

A full-space solution strategy is proposed wherein the integrality constraints are relaxed and a multi-step initialization strategy is employed in order to gradually approach the feasible region of the multi-scenario problem. The full-space solution strategy was significantly hampered by difficulties with finding a feasible point and numerical problems.

In order to facilitate the identification of a feasible point and to reduce the incidence of numerical difficulties, a hybrid surrogate refinery model was developed using the ALAMO modelling tool. An evaluation procedure was employed to assess the surrogate model, which was shown to be reasonably accurate for most output variables and to be more reliable than the high-fidelity model. Feasible solutions are obtained for the continuous relaxations of both case studies using the full-space solution strategy in conjunction with the surrogate model.

In order to solve the original MINLP problems, a decomposition strategy based on the generalized Benders decomposition (GBD) algorithm is proposed. The binary decisions are designated as complicating variables that, when fixed, reduce the full-space problem to a series of independent scenario subproblems. Through the application of the GBD algorithm, feasible mixed-integer solutions are obtained for both case studies, however optimality could not be guaranteed. Solutions obtained via the stochastic programming framework are shown to be more robust than solutions obtained via a deterministic problem formulation.