Prevalence and predictors of opioid use disorder following prescription of opioids for chronic noncancer pain: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Abstract

Background: Despite the many harms and limited efficacy of opioids in managing chronic noncancer pain (CNCP), they are commonly prescribed for these patients in North America. One of the harms associated with prolonged opioid use is opioid use disorder (OUD); however, the risk of addiction is uncertain. We systematically reviewed observational studies to establish the prevalence of (OUD), and to explore factors associated with OUD in patients with CNCP.

Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and PsycINFO from inception to December 2018 to identify studies that explored the prevalence of OUD or risk factors for OUD in patients with CNCP. Two specialists in addiction medicine reviewed each potentially eligible study, blinded to results, to ensure their outcome met DSM-5 criteria for OUD. We pooled estimates of OUD across eligible studies using random-effects models. When possible, we pooled estimates of association with OUD for all independent variables reported by more than one study.

Results: Twenty-two studies reported the prevalence of OUD, and six studies reported the association of 36 factors with OUD in patients with CNCP. The pooled prevalence of OUD was 20% (95% CI: 15% to 25%); however, we found evidence for small study effects (interaction p<0.001). When restricted to larger studies (≥900 patients), the pooled prevalence of OUD was 5.8% (95% CI: 2.8% to 9.5%; moderate certainty evidence). The prevalence of OUD was not associated with level of certainty of OUD criteria, under- or overestimation of instruments compared to DSM-5 criteria, severity of OUD, or risk of bias (interaction p values ranged from 0.34 to 0.92). Moderate certainty evidence demonstrated an association between OUD and male sex (OR 1.50 [95% CI: 1.05 to 2.14]; absolute risk increase (ARI) 2.7% [95% CI: 0.3% more to 5.8% more]), current smokers (OR 1.63; [95% CI: 1.25 to 2.12]; ARI 3.3% [1.3% more to 5.7% more]), and a history of mental health disorders (OR 1.49 [95% CI: 1.17 to 1.89]; ARI 2.6% [95% CI: 0.9% more to 4.6% more]). Low certainty evidence demonstrated an association between OUD and younger age (OR for every 10-year decrement, 1.60 [95% CI: 1.11 to 2.30]; ARI, 3.2% for every 10-year decrement [95% CI: 0.6% more to 6.6% more]). Moderate certainty evidence suggested no association between OUD and a history of alcohol abuse/dependence (OR 1.32 [95% CI: 0.84 to 2.07]; ARI 1.7% [95% CI: 0.9% less to 5.5% more]), and low certainty evidence suggested no association between OUD and a history of drug abuse (OR 1.51 [95% CI: 0.75 to 3.02]; ARI 2.7% [95% CI: 1.4% less to 9.9% more]).

Conclusion: Moderate certainty evidence suggests that 6% of CNCP patients prescribed opioids will develop OUD. Younger men who smoke, with a history of mental health disorders, are at higher risk. Additional research is needed to establish the association between OUD and a history of drug or alcohol abuse.