Manufacturing Structure and Umemployment Rates

Abstract

<p>The purpose of this paper is to explain unemployment rates and their variability in nine Census Metroploitan Areas by means of industrial manufacturing structure. The period of analysis is from 1975 to 1983. Basic statistical/mathematical methods and stepwise regression analysis are utilized in the study. Three groups of independent variable measures are developed: manufacturing subgroup breakdown; area specific characteristics; and indices of concentration/diversification. The data is selectively pooled by labour force size and by structural similarity to increase the reliability of estimates from the short time series. The structural clustering produces the best results where the most powerful variables explaining unemployment rates are the area's average manufacturing wage and the index of durable goods concentration.</p>