Applications of chance constrained optimization in operations management

Abstract

In this thesis we explore three applications of chance constrained optimization in operations management. We first investigate the effect of consumer demand estimation error on new product production planning. An inventory model is proposed, whereby demand is influenced by price and advertising. The effect of parameter misspecification of the demand model is empirically examined in relation to profit and service level feasibility, and conservative approaches to estimating their effect on consumer demand is determined. We next consider optimization in Internet advertising by introducing a chance constrained model for the fulfillment of guaranteed display Internet advertising campaigns. Lower and upper bounds using Monte Carlo sampling and convex approximations are presented, as well as a branching heuristic for sample approximation lower bounds and an iterative algorithm for improved convex approximation upper bounds. The final application is in risk management for parimutuel horse racing wagering. We develop a methodology to limit potential losing streaks with high probability to the given time horizon of a gambler. A proof of concept was conducted using one season of historical race data, where losing streaks were effectively contained within different time periods for superfecta betting.