The Reliability Of An Energy Balance Model In Simulating Climatic Responses Due To Increases In Carbon Dioxide Levels

Abstract

<p> A relatively simple climatic model based on the energy balance has been used to examine the climatic responses due to increases in carbon dioxide CO2. Simulations concerning the CO2 concentration, the cloud fraction and the ocean's mixed-layer depth were all performed using an IBM-PC personal computer. The results were intended to provide a better understanding of the processes involved in an EBM, as well as the importance of this type of model in simulating climatic responses. There were four main areas of study within the research centred around both a decrease and an increase in CO2 concentration, changes in the cloud fraction and the influence of the ocean's mixed-layer. </p> <p> The role of the oceans in the climate system is still somewhat of a mystery to most scientists. in terms of its affect on a CO2 enhanced climate. Changes in the cloud fraction serve either to enhance or suppress the effect of CO2 on the surface temperature of the planet. This is dependant on whether the amount of cloud is reduced or increased. The focus of the study is based on the changes in carbon dioxide concentration levels. Simulations confirm, that when CO2 is reduced. the surface temperature will decrease as well. When CO is halved. the temperature decrease is 2.51 ° C. In contrast, when CO2 is doubled the surface temperature rose by 2.91 °C . Thus. causing the present clay climate of the model to warm drastically. </p> <p> The reliability of the results proved to be difficult to assess. The model tends to overestimate decreases in temperature when co~ is reduced in content. However. Burt's model does seem to accurately represent increases in temperature for 2x CO2 .The simulation results fall within a range defined by the results of selected radiative convective models (RCM). Nevertheless. there is a need for increased research in the area of effects. produced by other parameters on a CO2 enhanced climate. </p>